OSINT Map

Eastern flank

Where things stand: the overall threat level, live alerts and today's news, with an update every day.

Watchcon

Yellow · Significant concern

Hybrid activity above baseline with effects on alliance territory. Standing campaign assessed as ongoing, unattributed. Conventional attack not indicated as imminent.

As of 6 November 2026, 18:11 UTC

Today's news

Live alerts

No live alerts.

Sectors

  • Baltic states

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on the Baltic states is high, with a rising trend and high confidence. Latvia reported two drone incursions on 1 and 3 November, the first assessed as most likely a Russian Geran and the second possibly Ukrainian, with interceptors and NATO air-policing fighters activated. Lithuania charged two men over the 18 October arson of a Starlink station, which it treats as Russian-linked sabotage.

  • Poland

    Hybrid: Elevated · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Moderate · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on Poland is elevated, with a rising trend and high confidence. A Turkish citizen suspected of directing the 23 September arson at the Starlink station in Wola Krobowska was arrested in Germany. Lithuanian police say one group acting for Russian services is behind the Starlink arsons in Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria.

  • High North / Baltic Sea CUI

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Rising · High confidence

    Hybrid activity in the High North and Baltic Sea infrastructure sector reads high, with a rising trend and high confidence. A Helsinki court jailed the Fitburg captain and boatswain for aggravated sabotage over the anchor drag that cut two Baltic cables on 31 December 2025.

  • Suwałki corridor

    Hybrid: Moderate · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Steady · Moderate confidence

    Hybrid activity against the Suwałki corridor reads moderate, the standing baseline, with a steady trend and moderate confidence. Poland has set up a special security operation and sent GROM special forces and counter-terrorism police to its northeast border with Kaliningrad after warnings of possible sabotage, which is an allied response and not a hostile posture. No hostile act or observed Russian preparation is on record in the corridor itself.

  • Moldova / Transnistria

    Hybrid: Elevated · Conventional: Low · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Steady · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on Moldova reads elevated, with a falling trend and high confidence. The cyberattack of 19 to 23 October exposed data of about 750,000 people, and 68 of the 82 suspended public services have been restored.

  • Black Sea flank

    Hybrid: High · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Elevated · Trend: Easing · High confidence

    Hybrid pressure on the Black Sea flank reads high, with a falling trend and high confidence. Russian naval drones sank the Contship Jet off Bulgaria on 28 October, one of a run of October strikes on merchant ships near Romania and Bulgaria, and drone fragments were found in Romania's Neamț County after a drone spent hours in Romanian airspace.

  • Kaliningrad

    Hybrid: Moderate · Conventional: Moderate · Spillover: Low · Trend: Steady · Moderate confidence

    Hybrid activity linked to Kaliningrad reads moderate, the standing baseline, with a steady trend and moderate confidence. Russia is completing an over-the-horizon radar near Gvardeysk, about 37 km from the Polish border, with a reported range of up to 3,000 km. Poland says it thwarted a possible provocation on the Kaliningrad border, and no Russian force build-up is on record.